Miami-Dade County - Historic Republican Flip

Dramatic Shift: Once a reliable Democratic stronghold, Miami-Dade flipped Republican for the first time in decades.

Key Demographics: Growing Cuban-American and Venezuelan-American populations, plus Hispanic voter shifts. 2020: D+7.35% → 2024: R+11.45%

Geography: Republican gains across both urban core and suburban areas (Kendall, Westchester, Hialeah).

Impact: Massive 18.8-point swing represents one of the largest county-level political realignments in recent Florida history.

South Florida Regional Transformation

Tri-County Swing: All three major South Florida counties swung dramatically toward Republicans from 2016 to 2024, representing a historic regional realignment:

• Miami-Dade: Flipped from D+29.86% (2016) to R+11.45% (2024) — a stunning 41.39-point swing
• Broward: Collapsed from D+35.91% (2016) to D+17.13% (2024) — 18.78-point Republican gain
• Palm Beach: Nearly flipped from D+15.81% (2016) to D+0.77% (2024) — 15.04-point swing (Swing County)
• Monroe (Florida Keys): Expanded from R+7.18% (2016) to R+18.48% (2024) — 11.30-point gain

Regional Impact: These four counties contain over 3 million voters. The massive rightward shift turned what was once a Democratic firewall into competitive or Republican territory, fundamentally changing Florida's electoral map.

Demographic Drivers: Hispanic voter realignment, particularly among Cuban, Venezuelan, and Colombian communities, combined with migration from northern states during and after COVID-19.

Orange County - Shrinking Democratic Margin

Trend: Orange County remains Democratic, but the margin narrowed sharply in 2024, dropping nearly 10 points in just four years.

Metro Growth: Orlando's continued expansion and demographic change still favor Democrats, but Republican gains among some suburban and Hispanic voters have eroded the lead. Population: +15.1% (2010-2020)

Electoral Pattern: 2020: D+23.11% → 2024: D+13.59% — the largest Democratic margin drop in decades for the county.

Strategic Importance: The narrowing gap signals new Republican competitiveness in the I-4 corridor and raises questions about future statewide trends.

Statewide Patterns & I-4 Corridor

Rural-Urban Divide: Polarization continues to grow between urban coastal counties and rural interior counties, with Republicans consolidating rural support.

I-4 Corridor Shift: The Tampa-Orlando corridor has transformed from battleground to Republican-leaning. Key shifts from 2016 to 2024:

• Hillsborough County (Tampa): Flipped from D+7.14% (2016) to R+3.10% (2024) — a 10.24-point swing
• Seminole County: Swung from R+1.64% (2016) to R+3.60% (2024), reversing its 2020 Democratic vote
• Orange County (Orlando): Democratic margin collapsed from D+25.65% (2016) to D+13.78% (2024) — an 11.87-point swing
• Osceola County: Dramatic flip from D+25.90% (2016) to R+1.47% (2024) — a stunning 27.37-point swing
• Polk County: Expanded Republican margin from R+14.55% (2016) to R+20.86% (2024)
• Volusia County: Grew from R+13.45% (2016) to R+21.95% (2024) — GOP dominance increasing
• Lake County: Maintained strong Republican performance, growing from R+23.84% to R+24.86%

Registration Trends: Unaffiliated voter growth continues to create volatile election dynamics, especially in swing counties.

Demographics: Hispanic population growth in Central Florida is reshaping the map, with Osceola County's dramatic rightward shift highlighting complex partisan realignment within these communities.