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🏛️ Florida Statewide
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🔍 Research Findings
Miami-Dade County - Historic Republican Flip
Dramatic Shift: Once a reliable Democratic stronghold, Miami-Dade flipped Republican for the first time in decades.
Key Demographics: Growing Cuban-American and Venezuelan-American populations, plus Hispanic voter shifts. 2020: D+7.35% → 2024: R+11.45%
Geography: Republican gains across both urban core and suburban areas (Kendall, Westchester, Hialeah).
Impact: Massive 18.1-point swing represents one of the largest county-level political realignments in recent Florida history.
Orange County - Shrinking Democratic Margin
Trend: Orange County remains Democratic, but the margin narrowed sharply in 2024, dropping nearly 10 points in just four years.
Metro Growth: Orlando's continued expansion and demographic change still favor Democrats, but Republican gains among some suburban and Hispanic voters have eroded the lead. Population: +15.1% (2010-2020)
Electoral Pattern:2020: D+23.11% → 2024: D+13.59% — the largest Democratic margin drop in decades for the county.
Strategic Importance: The narrowing gap signals new Republican competitiveness in the I-4 corridor and raises questions about future statewide trends.
Statewide Patterns & I-4 Corridor
Rural-Urban Divide: Polarization continues to grow between urban coastal counties and rural interior counties, with Republicans consolidating rural support.
I-4 Corridor Shift: The Tampa-Orlando corridor remains the key battleground, but 2024 saw Republicans make major gains. Hillsborough County voted for both Trump and Rick Scott, Seminole County voted for Trump by 3.55 points, Orange saw a sharply reduced Democratic margin, and Polk and Volusia Counties delivered landslide wins for Trump, each by over 20 points.
Registration Trends: Unaffiliated voter growth continues to create volatile election dynamics, especially in swing counties.
Demographics: Hispanic population growth in Central Florida is still reshaping the map, but recent cycles show more complex partisan shifts within these communities.