2020 Results: Trump 53.50% vs Biden 45.10% - first time since 2008 a Democrat reached 45% (Obama got 44.94%).
2024 Consistency: Trump 53.36% vs Harris 45.22% - nearly identical Democratic share (45.10% vs 45.22%).
Growth Centers: Graham, Burlington, and especially Mebane (I-40/I-85 corridor). Buc-ee's opening late 2026/early 2027 signals commercial growth.
Key Insight: Statistical similarity across cycles highlights persistent competitive trends in this swing county.
Regional Transformation
Suburban Realignment: Both counties exemplify the transformation of formerly safe Republican areas into competitive battlegrounds.
Unaffiliated Surge: In both counties, unaffiliated voters now outnumber Democrats and Republicans, creating volatile electoral dynamics.
Geographic Advantage: Proximity to Charlotte, the Triad, and Triangle drives population growth and political moderation.
Turnout Impact: Rising voter registration and turnout make these counties pivotal to statewide margins.
National Pattern: These trends mirror broader suburban realignment across the United States.
Other Statewide Patterns & Geographic Divides
Urban-Rural Polarization: North Carolina exhibits extreme geographic sorting, with the urban counties (Buncombe, Mecklenburg, Orange, Durham, Wake, Forsyth, and Guilford) becoming increasingly Democratic, while rural areas remain solidly Republican.
Suburban Shifts: Suburban counties around Charlotte (Cabarrus, Gaston, Iredell, and Union) and the Triad (Alamance, Randolph) are either trending Democratic, getting more reinforced by the growth in conservative-leaning newcomers, or holding steady.
Rural Stability: Rural counties continue to vote overwhelmingly Republican and consolidate in other parts of the state, with few exceptions.
Black Belt Depopulation and Realignment: Many majority-Black rural counties in the eastern part of the state are experiencing population decline and decreasing democratic vote margins since 2016, which could impact future political dynamics. For example, counties like Halifax and Northampton have seen significant shifts, with more voters opting for Republican candidates in counties like Wilson which was decided by 0.4 points in the 2024 presidential election narrowly voting Kamala Harris over President Donald Trump.
Democratic Path: For Democrats to be competitive statewide, they must maximize turnout and margins in urban centers while making inroads in suburban areas and not getting crushed in the rurals.
Population Trends: Rapid growth in urban and suburban counties is reshaping the electorate, while rural areas face stagnation or decline. So along with the increase in voting registration for the GOP, while not telling the entire story, shows that the state will continue to be a Republican-leaning swing state for the foreseeable future.