Charleston County – Urban Democratic Surge

Trend: Charleston has shifted steadily Democratic, with Biden winning by double digits in 2020 and 2024. Urban growth and in-migration drive this trend.

2020–2024: Democratic margin increased, fueled by young professionals and retirees moving to the area.

Key Areas: City of Charleston, Mount Pleasant, North Charleston.

Dorchester County – Suburban Growth & Shifting Margins

Trend: Dorchester is one of SC's fastest-growing suburban counties, with significant population increases and new housing developments.

2020–2024: While still Republican-leaning, the margin has narrowed as Summerville and surrounding areas diversify and attract new residents.

Key Areas: Summerville, North Charleston (Dorchester portion), St. George.

Greenville County – GOP Stronghold, Suburban Softening

Trend: Still the largest Republican base in SC, but the margin has narrowed slightly as suburbs diversify.

2020–2024: Republican margin shrank by 2 points, with Democratic gains in suburban precincts.

Key Areas: Greenville city, Simpsonville, Mauldin.

Jasper County – Demographic Change & Political Flip

Trend: Jasper was long a Democratic stronghold as part of the rural Black Belt, but rapid population growth and an influx of conservative retirees have transformed its politics. The county is now one of the most diverse and fastest-growing in SC.

2022–2024: Jasper flipped Republican in the 2022 US Senate election and again in the 2024 presidential race—the first GOP wins since 1972. The 2020 presidential vote was nearly even, but by 2024, the GOP margin grew to 54%–45% as new residents, especially retirees, shifted the balance.

Demographics: The population grew from 20,678 (2000) to 28,791 (2020), with significant increases in Hispanic and Black residents, but also a rising share of White and older voters.

Key Areas: Hardeeville (largest community), Ridgeland (county seat), Sun City Hilton Head.

Lancaster County – Fastest GOP Swing

Trend: Once competitive, Lancaster has swung sharply Republican since 2012, mirroring Charlotte suburban growth but with a redder tilt.

2020–2024: GOP margin grew, but Democratic pockets remain in Indian Land and Lancaster city.

Key Areas: Indian Land, Lancaster city, Sun City, Carolina Lakes.

Regional Transformation

Suburban Realignment: Charleston, Greenville, and Jasper counties show how demographic and economic change is reshaping SC’s political map.

Growth Impact: Population growth and migration patterns are making some counties more competitive, while others become GOP strongholds.

Turnout Impact: Rising voter registration and turnout make these counties pivotal to statewide margins.

National Pattern: These trends mirror broader suburban and Sunbelt realignment across the United States.

York County – Charlotte Suburb, GOP Growth with Urban Pockets

Trend: York County, part of the fast-growing Charlotte metro area, has seen rapid suburban expansion and population growth. While the county remains solidly Republican, Democratic candidates have made gains in urbanized areas like Rock Hill and Fort Mill.

2020–2024: The GOP margin remains strong overall, but Democratic vote share has increased in the county’s urban and suburban precincts, reflecting broader Sunbelt suburban trends.

Key Areas: Rock Hill, Fort Mill, Tega Cay, Clover.