Select a contest to see statewide results and margin.
This analysis examines 4 election cycles from 2012 to 2024, tracking margins, turnout trends, vote shares, and partisan realignment across Virginia's counties and regions.
Comprehensive statewide trends showing Virginia's evolution across all counties, including voting patterns, turnout changes, and partisan realignment.
Margin Trend: 2012: D+3.93% → 2016: D+5.65% → 2020: D+10.31% → 2024: D+5.90%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 4.41 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 1.97 pts toward Democratic
Turnout Trend: 2012: 3,858,043 → 2016: 3,984,631 → 2020: 4,460,524 → 2024: 4,505,941 (+1.0% vs 2020)
Latest (2024) Results: DEM 52.95% | REP 47.05% | Other 2.12%
Top Turnout Counties (2024):
Fairfax County (589,427), Loudoun County (229,692), Virginia Beach city (228,771), Prince William County (228,712), Chesterfield County (210,628)
Largest County Swings (2020 → 2024):
Manassas Park city (R+13.2), Lynchburg city (R+10.7), Buckingham County (R+10.3), Manassas city (R+9.6), Covington city (R+9.3)
Top Turnout Gains (2020 → 2024):
Goochland County (+16.5%), New Kent County (+16.2%), Williamsburg city (+14.7%), Rockingham County (+11.5%), Louisa County (+10.2%)
County Flips: Lynchburg city (D → R), Prince Edward County (D → R), Surry County (D → R)
Virginia's most populous region and DC's Virginia suburbs, including Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, and Arlington. Like neighboring Maryland suburbs, NoVA's politics are shaped by federal government employment, high education levels, and growing diversity. Once a Republican stronghold, it has become Virginia's Democratic anchor.
Margin Trend: 2012: D+21.33% → 2016: D+36.52% → 2020: D+40.53% → 2024: D+33.19%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 7.34 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 11.85 pts toward Democratic
Turnout Trend: 2012: 1,100,588 → 2016: 1,168,374 → 2020: 1,312,305 → 2024: 1,303,022 (-0.7% vs 2020)
Latest (2024) Two-Party Split: DEM 66.59% | REP 33.41%
The state capital region including Richmond city and suburbs like Henrico and Chesterfield. A competitive battleground where urban Democratic strength meets suburban swing counties.
Margin Trend: 2012: D+8.31% → 2016: D+15.88% → 2020: D+22.07% → 2024: D+22.00%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 0.07 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 13.69 pts toward Democratic
Turnout Trend: 2012: 490,881 → 2016: 506,352 → 2020: 569,162 → 2024: 574,252 (+0.9% vs 2020)
Latest (2024) Two-Party Split: DEM 61.00% | REP 39.00%
Virginia's southeastern coastal region and military hub. Includes Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and Newport News. Leans Democratic in urban cores with competitive suburbs.
Margin Trend: 2012: D+18.39% → 2016: D+15.56% → 2020: D+21.27% → 2024: D+17.70%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 3.57 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 0.70 pts toward Republican
Turnout Trend: 2012: 629,200 → 2016: 623,931 → 2020: 685,878 → 2024: 676,411 (-1.4% vs 2020)
Latest (2024) Two-Party Split: DEM 58.85% | REP 41.15%
College town region centered on Charlottesville and UVA. More Democratic than surrounding rural areas due to education sector influence and university populations.
Margin Trend: 2012: D+5.73% → 2016: D+8.09% → 2020: D+12.88% → 2024: D+9.98%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 2.90 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 4.25 pts toward Democratic
Turnout Trend: 2012: 148,999 → 2016: 157,188 → 2020: 181,316 → 2024: 188,449 (+3.9% vs 2020)
Latest (2024) Two-Party Split: DEM 54.99% | REP 45.01%
The scenic valley corridor between the Blue Ridge and Allegheny mountains. Traditionally conservative region with agricultural communities and small towns.
Margin Trend: 2012: R+24.54% → 2016: R+32.52% → 2020: R+27.56% → 2024: R+28.40%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 0.84 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 3.86 pts toward Republican
Turnout Trend: 2012: 215,127 → 2016: 231,610 → 2020: 266,746 → 2024: 282,790 (+6.0% vs 2020)
Latest (2024) Two-Party Split: DEM 35.80% | REP 64.20%
Appalachian Virginia's coal and mountain country. Once Democratic union territory, now among Virginia's most Republican regions, mirroring trends across Appalachia.
Margin Trend: 2012: R+42.04% → 2016: R+59.75% → 2020: R+60.10% → 2024: R+62.04%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 1.94 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 20.00 pts toward Republican
Turnout Trend: 2012: 150,076 → 2016: 151,394 → 2020: 166,275 → 2024: 167,296 (+0.6% vs 2020)
Latest (2024) Two-Party Split: DEM 18.98% | REP 81.02%
Rural counties south of Richmond with agricultural and manufacturing economies. Historically Democratic, now reliably Republican as rural realignment continues statewide.
Margin Trend: 2012: R+12.84% → 2016: R+24.98% → 2020: R+25.79% → 2024: R+30.89%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 5.10 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 18.05 pts toward Republican
Turnout Trend: 2012: 188,646 → 2016: 187,980 → 2020: 203,680 → 2024: 203,993 (+0.2% vs 2020)
Latest (2024) Two-Party Split: DEM 34.56% | REP 65.44%
Region: Richmond Metro
Margin Trend: 2012: R+7.85% → 2016: R+2.39% → 2020: D+6.80% → 2024: D+9.11%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 2.31 pts toward Democratic
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 16.96 pts toward Democratic
2024 Results: DEM 54.55% (112,869) | REP 45.45% (94,030) | Total 210,628
2020 Results: DEM 53.40% (106,935) | REP 46.60% (93,326) | Total 203,884
Turnout Change: +3.3%
No party flip
Region: Southside/Rural
Margin Trend: 2012: R+15.09% → 2016: R+29.95% → 2020: R+29.39% → 2024: R+33.03%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 3.64 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 17.94 pts toward Republican
2024 Results: DEM 33.48% (8,457) | REP 66.52% (16,800) | Total 25,474
2020 Results: DEM 35.30% (9,127) | REP 64.70% (16,725) | Total 26,105
Turnout Change: -2.4%
No party flip
Region: Southwest Virginia
Margin Trend: 2012: R+45.22% → 2016: R+64.51% → 2020: R+69.78% → 2024: R+72.36%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 2.58 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 27.14 pts toward Republican
2024 Results: DEM 13.82% (1,391) | REP 86.18% (8,674) | Total 10,122
2020 Results: DEM 15.11% (1,489) | REP 84.89% (8,365) | Total 9,946
Turnout Change: +1.8%
No party flip
Region: Hampton Roads
Margin Trend: 2012: D+1.06% → 2016: R+1.33% → 2020: D+6.58% → 2024: D+3.85%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 2.73 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 2.79 pts toward Democratic
2024 Results: DEM 51.92% (65,399) | REP 48.08% (60,550) | Total 128,001
2020 Results: DEM 53.29% (66,377) | REP 46.71% (58,180) | Total 127,108
Turnout Change: +0.7%
No party flip
Region: Hampton Roads
Margin Trend: 2012: R+2.58% → 2016: R+3.80% → 2020: D+5.53% → 2024: D+2.69%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 2.85 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 5.26 pts toward Democratic
2024 Results: DEM 51.34% (115,412) | REP 48.66% (109,375) | Total 228,771
2020 Results: DEM 52.77% (117,393) | REP 47.23% (105,087) | Total 227,561
Turnout Change: +0.5%
No party flip
Region: Other
Margin Trend: 2012: D+33.01% → 2016: D+25.68% → 2020: D+19.68% → 2024: D+10.86%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 8.82 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 22.16 pts toward Republican
2024 Results: DEM 55.43% (2,384) | REP 44.57% (1,917) | Total 4,353
2020 Results: DEM 59.84% (2,624) | REP 40.16% (1,761) | Total 4,441
Turnout Change: -2.0%
No party flip
Region: Northern Virginia
Margin Trend: 2012: D+4.56% → 2016: D+18.07% → 2020: D+25.53% → 2024: D+16.79%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 8.74 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 12.24 pts toward Democratic
2024 Results: DEM 58.40% (129,280) | REP 41.60% (92,107) | Total 229,692
2020 Results: DEM 62.77% (138,372) | REP 37.23% (82,088) | Total 224,862
Turnout Change: +2.1%
No party flip
Region: Northern Virginia
Margin Trend: 2012: D+16.24% → 2016: D+22.41% → 2020: D+27.51% → 2024: D+18.49%
Recent Swing (2020 → 2024): 9.02 pts toward Republican
Long-term Swing (2012 → 2024): 2.25 pts toward Democratic
2024 Results: DEM 59.25% (131,128) | REP 40.75% (90,203) | Total 228,712
2020 Results: DEM 63.75% (142,863) | REP 36.25% (81,222) | Total 228,056
Turnout Change: +0.3%
No party flip
Counties ranked by absolute margin swing. Includes multi-year trends, turnout changes, and party control shifts.
Region: Northern Virginia
Margin Change: 2020: D+33.71% → 2024: D+20.48%
Swing Direction: 13.23 pts toward Republican
Long-term Trend (2012 → 2024): 5.29 pts toward Republican
2024 Results: DEM 60.24% (3,506) | REP 39.76% (2,314) | Total 5,997
2020 Results: DEM 66.86% (3,992) | REP 33.14% (1,979) | Total 6,087
Turnout Change: -1.5%
No party flip
Region: Other
Margin Change: 2020: D+2.71% → 2024: R+8.03%
Swing Direction: 10.74 pts toward Republican
Long-term Trend (2012 → 2024): 2.76 pts toward Democratic
2024 Results: DEM 45.98% (16,664) | REP 54.02% (19,574) | Total 37,023
2020 Results: DEM 51.35% (18,048) | REP 48.65% (17,097) | Total 36,363
Turnout Change: +1.8%
Flip: Democratic → Republican
Region: Other
Margin Change: 2020: R+13.39% → 2024: R+23.73%
Swing Direction: 10.34 pts toward Republican
Long-term Trend (2012 → 2024): 26.20 pts toward Republican
2024 Results: DEM 38.14% (2,988) | REP 61.86% (4,847) | Total 7,925
2020 Results: DEM 43.31% (3,471) | REP 56.69% (4,544) | Total 8,126
Turnout Change: -2.5%
No party flip
Region: Northern Virginia
Margin Change: 2020: D+24.68% → 2024: D+15.13%
Swing Direction: 9.55 pts toward Republican
Long-term Trend (2012 → 2024): 1.64 pts toward Democratic
2024 Results: DEM 57.56% (9,048) | REP 42.44% (6,670) | Total 16,100
2020 Results: DEM 62.34% (10,356) | REP 37.66% (6,256) | Total 16,968
Turnout Change: -5.1%
No party flip
Region: Other
Margin Change: 2020: R+24.21% → 2024: R+33.50%
Swing Direction: 9.28 pts toward Republican
Long-term Trend (2012 → 2024): 48.49 pts toward Republican
2024 Results: DEM 33.25% (818) | REP 66.75% (1,642) | Total 2,480
2020 Results: DEM 37.89% (964) | REP 62.11% (1,580) | Total 2,603
Turnout Change: -4.7%
No party flip
Region: Other
Margin Change: 2020: D+8.41% → 2024: R+0.66%
Swing Direction: 9.07 pts toward Republican
Long-term Trend (2012 → 2024): 21.97 pts toward Republican
2024 Results: DEM 49.67% (2,176) | REP 50.33% (2,205) | Total 4,441
2020 Results: DEM 54.21% (2,397) | REP 45.79% (2,025) | Total 4,471
Turnout Change: -0.7%
Flip: Democratic → Republican
Region: Northern Virginia
Margin Change: 2020: D+27.51% → 2024: D+18.49%
Swing Direction: 9.02 pts toward Republican
Long-term Trend (2012 → 2024): 2.25 pts toward Democratic
2024 Results: DEM 59.25% (131,128) | REP 40.75% (90,203) | Total 228,712
2020 Results: DEM 63.75% (142,863) | REP 36.25% (81,222) | Total 228,056
Turnout Change: +0.3%
No party flip
Region: Other
Margin Change: 2020: D+19.68% → 2024: D+10.86%
Swing Direction: 8.82 pts toward Republican
Long-term Trend (2012 → 2024): 22.16 pts toward Republican
2024 Results: DEM 55.43% (2,384) | REP 44.57% (1,917) | Total 4,353
2020 Results: DEM 59.84% (2,624) | REP 40.16% (1,761) | Total 4,441
Turnout Change: -2.0%
No party flip