Select a contest to see statewide results and margin.
Historical Trend: Milwaukee County has shown steadily increasing Democratic margins: 2000: D+20.49% → 2004: D+24.34% → 2008: D+35.85% → 2012: D+36.04% → 2016: D+37.01% → 2020: D+39.85% → 2024: D+38.41%
Pattern: 18-point leftward shift from 2000 to peak in 2020. Margins now stabilized at D+39-40%.
Key Demographics: Large African American population (26.8%), urban professionals, and college-educated voters. Wisconsin's most populous county (~945,000 residents).
Geography: City of Milwaukee drives Democratic margins, while suburban areas show mixed patterns.
Impact: Critical for statewide Democratic victories - turnout and margin here often determines statewide outcomes in close elections.
Geographic Context: Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties form the affluent suburban collar around Milwaukee, historically the Republican firewall in statewide elections.
Complete 7-Election Trends:
Waukesha: 2000: R+33.76% → 2004: R+35.29% → 2008: R+25.68% → 2012: R+34.45% → 2016: R+26.49% → 2020: R+20.80% → 2024: R+19.69%
Ozaukee: 2000: R+33.77% → 2004: R+32.41% → 2008: R+21.72% → 2012: R+30.31% → 2016: R+18.82% → 2020: R+12.03% → 2024: R+10.45%
Washington: 2000: R+37.53% → 2004: R+40.58% → 2008: R+29.58% → 2012: R+40.13% → 2016: R+39.58% → 2020: R+38.14% → 2024: R+36.21%
Pattern: Waukesha and Ozaukee show dramatic Democratic gains (14-23 points 2000-2024), with 2020 representing inflection point toward Democrats. Washington more stable, slight moderation. College-educated suburban voters shifting left.
Demographics: Affluent, highly educated (45-50% bachelor's degree+), predominantly white suburban communities. Combined population ~620,000.
Strategic Impact: WOW counties cast ~10% of statewide votes. Their erosion from R+38-40% peaks to R+20-30% represents a massive shift - Republicans must compensate with stronger rural performance or lose statewide races.
Explosive Democratic Growth: Dane County margins have expanded dramatically: 2000: D+28.58% → 2004: D+33.07% → 2008: D+46.98% → 2012: D+43.54% → 2016: D+47.17% → 2020: D+52.61% → 2024: D+51.53%
Magnitude: 22-point leftward shift since 2000 - among the largest Democratic gains in any Wisconsin county.
Metro Growth: Madison MSA is Wisconsin's fastest-growing region. Home to UW-Madison (45,000+ students), state government, and thriving tech sector.
Population: ~550,000 residents (2020), up from ~427,000 (2000) - 29% growth in 20 years.
Strategic Importance: Second-largest county. Expanding margins here increasingly offset Republican rural dominance.
The Big Three Dynamic: Wisconsin elections often determined by turnout and margins in Milwaukee, Dane, and Waukesha counties. Together they cast ~25% of statewide votes.
Swing Counties to Watch:
Rural-Urban Polarization: Small rural counties increasingly Republican (often R+30-50%), while urban counties grow more Democratic. Suburbs are the battleground.
Electoral Math: Democrats must maximize Milwaukee/Dane turnout and margins while limiting losses in WOW counties and holding competitive counties. Republicans need strong rural performance and to keep suburban erosion in check.
Rock County (Janesville): 2000: D+18.47% → 2004: D+16.71% → 2008: D+29.26% → 2012: D+23.18% → 2016: D+10.33% → 2020: D+11.15% → 2024: D+7.27%
Pattern: Democratic anchor eroding - down 11 points from 2000 to 2024. Obama peak in 2008, steady decline since.
Racine County: 2000: R+2.76% → 2004: R+4.16% → 2008: D+7.41% → 2012: D+3.54% → 2016: R+4.35% → 2020: R+4.06% → 2024: R+6.15%
Pattern: Volatile swing county - flipped D in 2008, back to R by 2016. Manufacturing decline and white working-class realignment driving Republican consolidation.
Kenosha County: 2000: D+5.55% → 2004: D+5.91% → 2008: D+18.06% → 2012: D+12.23% → 2016: R+0.33% → 2020: R+3.13% → 2024: R+6.23%
Pattern: Classic swing county - Democratic 2000-2012, flipped Republican 2016-2024. 12-point swing from 2008 peak to 2024. Important bellwether.
Eau Claire County: 2000: D+6.59% → 2004: D+9.77% → 2008: D+22.15% → 2012: D+13.52% → 2016: D+7.26% → 2020: D+10.77% → 2024: D+10.56%
Pattern: Consistently Democratic - university town (UW-Eau Claire) anchors margins. Obama peak in 2008, moderate decline but stable Democratic lean D+7-11% range.
La Crosse County: 2000: D+7.43% → 2004: D+7.86% → 2008: D+23.45% → 2012: D+17.24% → 2016: D+9.56% → 2020: D+13.50% → 2024: D+9.36%
Pattern: Reliable Democratic bellwether - Mississippi River city with UW-La Crosse. Strong Obama peak in 2008, declined but remains Democratic. Classic swing county indicator for statewide races.
Geographic Context: Brown (Green Bay), Outagamie (Appleton), Winnebago (Oshkosh) form the Fox Valley industrial corridor in northeast Wisconsin.
Complete 7-Election Trends:
Brown: 2000: R+4.79% → 2004: R+9.93% → 2008: D+9.15% → 2012: R+1.79% → 2016: R+10.73% → 2020: R+7.19% → 2024: R+7.50%
Outagamie: 2000: R+8.88% → 2004: R+9.70% → 2008: D+11.60% → 2012: R+1.81% → 2016: R+12.57% → 2020: R+9.92% → 2024: R+10.17%
Winnebago: 2000: R+5.71% → 2004: R+6.32% → 2008: D+11.66% → 2012: D+3.73% → 2016: R+7.34% → 2020: R+3.97% → 2024: R+4.74%
Pattern: All three counties show oscillation around 2008 Obama peak, then consolidation Republican 2016-2024. Brown most stable Republican, Winnebago most volatile. 2008 Obama peaked in all three.
Demographics: Working-class white voters, manufacturing jobs, smaller cities. Lower college education rates than WOW counties but more diverse than rural areas.
Contrast with WOW: While college-educated WOW suburbs trend Democratic, working-class BOW counties moved Republican. Different educational profiles drive opposite partisan trajectories.
Impact: Together these three counties have ~485,000 residents. Their flip from D+10% to R+10% represents a massive 100,000+ vote swing that reshaped Wisconsin's electoral map.
Regional Character: Southwest Wisconsin's Driftless Area (Crawford, Grant, Lafayette, Richland, Vernon counties) features unique topography with rolling hills never flattened by glaciers. Historically Democratic farming region with Norwegian/German heritage.
Complete 7-Election Trends - Stunning Reversal:
Crawford: 2000: D+13.27% → 2004: D+11.54% → 2008: D+27.03% → 2012: D+19.98% → 2016: R+5.41% → 2020: R+7.67% → 2024: R+13.76% = 27pt swing 2000-2024
Grant: 2000: D+2.05% → 2004: D+2.60% → 2008: D+23.88% → 2012: D+13.77% → 2016: R+9.47% → 2020: R+12.28% → 2024: R+18.15% = 20pt swing 2000-2024
Lafayette: 2000: D+5.15% → 2004: D+5.64% → 2008: D+22.32% → 2012: D+15.37% → 2016: R+8.99% → 2020: R+13.72% → 2024: R+20.23% = 25pt swing 2000-2024
Richland: 2000: R+1.89% → 2004: R+3.56% → 2008: D+20.63% → 2012: D+16.13% → 2016: R+5.54% → 2020: R+9.72% → 2024: R+13.11% = 15pt swing 2000-2024
Vernon: 2000: D+6.85% → 2004: D+7.75% → 2008: D+22.00% → 2012: D+14.73% → 2016: R+4.53% → 2020: R+4.78% → 2024: R+7.78% = 14pt swing 2000-2024
Critical Pattern: ALL counties peaked Democratic in 2008 (Obama), then flipped Republican by 2016 (Trump). Margins continued hardening Republican 2016-2024. 2012 shows intermediate position.
Demographics: Predominantly white, working-class, dairy farming communities. Lower college education rates, aging population, small towns and rural areas.
Cultural Factors: Trade policy (particularly affecting dairy), immigration, changing Democratic coalition, and cultural issues drove dramatic shift. Counties that strongly backed Obama's economic populism embraced Trump's version.
Exception - Iowa County: Home to Dodgeville and Governor Dodge State Park, retains Democratic lean (D+7.8% in 2024) due to slightly higher education levels and proximity to Madison's influence.
Historical Context: These counties were progressive strongholds in early 20th century (Fighting Bob La Follette territory). Their transformation from D+25% to R+15% represents one of the most complete political realignments in modern American politics.